he’s a highwayman

no grief: the coitus track, the political 8-ball, and a socially conservative pro-life voting bloc

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me:
so, is Daniels gonna sign the abortion bill?
I’ve got a meeting. please give me a lengthy, rant-like response sometime soon.
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Mike, the expert: Well, this has to be looked at as a purely political decision.  I don’t think Daniels gives two shits about the actual wrongness of the bill, or the potential consequences to the mother, child, or affected family.  I say this only because it’s not like he’s been a past champion of improving women’s health care (or children’s or the disabled’s or veterans’ health care for that matter).  So, I don’t think signing this bill will keep him up at night, wrestling with his demons … er … I mean his conscience.  I could be wrong, but I don’t think he is thinking of some 17-year-old girl who got accepted into Purdue’s engineering department but just found out she got knocked up by Blane, the absent but studly looking asshole wide receiver who didn’t even last very long, but is obviously fertile enough to give her an unwanted baby while taking her on her very first sex lap around the coitus track.

So, knowing that, what does the political 8-ball tell Daniels?  He’s got to weigh his image, and if he has decided to run for president, he has to weigh the necessity of appeasing a socially conservative pro-life voting bloc — in states other than Indiana — that he has to get through in order to even get the nomination.  Vetoing this bill would help in winning the presidency in an general election, I have little doubt of that, because the bill goes way way too far for liberals, obviously, but certainly too far for independents and moderates as well.  He could state the overreach as a reason, or the likelihood that it would be overturned by the courts, or he can call up his past statements about wanting a truce on social issues because there are more important economic issues to focus on, which is his bread and butter anyway, and he’d also get to maintain the “serious guy” candidate persona, even wrestling it away from Mitt Romney who has caved on many issues like this.  Indiana Republicans would easily forgive him if he vetoed the bill, but Iowa Republicans?  Who the hell knows?
Also, his veto is usually a symbolic statement that can easily be overridden by a simple majority vote (51 House Members, 26 Senators).  Now, when a Republican governor vetoes something, it can certainly turn some fellow Republican votes if they want to override them, but when a bill this extreme is able to pass 66-32 and 35-12?  Well, I don’t think an override will be that difficult.  So, the question is, what type of message does Daniels want to send, knowing that any veto will most likely get overturned … And that’s a really hard question to answer, if you ask me.  I think people are right: He is in a tough spot, and I feel no sympathy for him.  Daniels is in a tough spot because I don’t think he really gives a shit about abortion issues, I don’t think he’s wracked with grief — like a lot of these conservatives say they are — about all these aborted babies who never had a chance.  I don’t think he gives a fuck.
But, Daniels is a Republican, and they do give a fuck.  So, I think there is enough pressures on him that will lead him to sign it.  Signing is bad politics overall, and he knows it, but he’s too ambivalent about the actual consequences of this legislation to want to take such a hit with his party.  The political benefits are too long-term for Daniels’ short-term needs of winning early primaries — which are especially important for unknown challengers.  It might also make him look a little weak if his veto was overturned by his own party.  This being said, I actually won’t be surprised if he does veto it, because of the reasons stated — and I obviously don’t have a window into his soul, although I think I can get a pretty good look at it because of that bald, smooth head of his.  If he does veto it, expect financial reason to be a part of his reasons, like how Indiana may lose $4 million in federal funding, etc..

me: yep, I think that’ll do it. thanks.
Saturday update: Daniels plans to sign it.
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